The Morrison team is expressing confidence in the Coalition’s ability to hold ground in Queensland and defend Peter Dutton against a powerful challenge from Labor candidate Ali France.
The Coalition also hopes to win seats from Labor in Tasmania, where the twin electorates of Bass and Braddon are regarded as winnable.
But Labor began this campaign with a lead in the opinion polls and goes into the final week with a sense of confidence that it can form government.
The Prime Minister’s big announcement in Melbourne on Sunday, a $4 billion commitment to the East West Link motorway, is seen by Labor as an attempt to hold the Liberal electorates of Casey, Deakin and La Trobe.
In other words, it is purely defensive. The sobering fact is that Labor would need a swing of 6.4 per cent to win Deakin and dislodge Liberal MP Michael Sukkar, one of those who signed the petition that brought down Malcolm Turnbull. The Liberals clearly believe this is quite possible.
Elsewhere in Victoria, the Labor team appears confident of winning Dunkley, Chisholm and Corangamite.
In NSW, Labor is aiming to win Gilmore on the south coast and Reid in the inner-west of Sydney, while the western Sydney seat of Lindsay is regarded as a very tight race.
The highly marginal electorates around suburban Brisbane are also tightly contested. Dutton has poured resources into his electorate of Dickson and his Liberal ally Luke Howarth is campaigning very effectively in neighbouring Petrie.
Labor is hoping to win the seat of Forde, on the southern side of Brisbane, from Liberal MP Bert van Manen, who defeated aspiring federal MP Peter Beattie in 2013. Labor is also aiming to win Brisbane and Flynn.
While recent polling suggests the Coalition is ahead of Labor by 51 to 49 per cent in two-party terms in Queensland, this is not the good news for the government that some thought.
The Coalition was ahead by 54 to 46 per cent at the last election in Queensland. A three per cent swing to Labor means an election victory for Shorten, depending on where the swing hits.
One reason for Shorten’s visit to Perth is the sense that a similar swing is underway in Western Australia. The Shorten team has its eyes on Hasluck, Stirling and Swan. With a big swing, there is a chance it might win Pearce, the electorate held by Attorney-General Christian Porter.
Labor began the campaign with 69 seats, without accounting for redistributions. As the final week begins, it appears to have the edge in at least another dozen.
David Crowe is Chief Political Correspondent of the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.